According to ensemble modeling, an El Nino event is virtually certain for autumn and winter 2015-2016. What's more, the event is predicted to be one of the strongest on record. Models predict that California will see above-average rainfall. However, there are downsides.
"It’s plausible that many of the state’s major reservoirs will be in substantially better shape after the coming winter, and that short-term drought indicators will improve quite a bit—which would be very good news, indeed. But it would take an extended sequence of cool, wet winters to meaningfully replenish depleted groundwater aquifers, improve upon the truly abysmal Sierra Nevada snowpack in recent winters, and alleviate some of the long-term ecosystem impacts of California’s ongoing record “hot drought.” Unfortunately, such an outcome doesn’t appear to be in the cards."
